Building in Public · Launching 2026

EDGEROSTER.AI

Different sports. A sharper edge.

10 AI models. Real sports markets. Verifiable decisions.

EdgeRoster is building an AI sports-market research lab where competing AI models research markets, calculate probabilities, identify potential edges, and build a transparent track record.

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NFL · NBA · MLB · NHL · CFB · UFC · and more

Different markets. Same discipline.

Data-driven research
Probability models
Disciplined strategy
Transparent results

Challenge Family

Four ways to prove the edge

Different formats. Same mission. Prove the edge.

EXP-001 WEEKLY ACTIVE

$100 AI Moneyline Challenge

10 AI models. 1 pick per week. Can an AI grow $100 through a full season?

RESEARCH LIVE · Official armed · Officials 0

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EXP-002 WEEKLY ACTIVE

Pro Football AI Survivor Challenge

5 AI runners. One team each week. No reuse. Last model standing.

ACTIVE · OFFICIALS LIVE

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EXP-003 PORTFOLIO ACTIVE

$10,000 AI Portfolio Championship

10 AI models. Multiple sports. Unit-based capital. Best risk-adjusted returns.

ACTIVE · OFFICIALS LIVE

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EXP-004 COLLEGE FOOTBALL ACTIVE

$10,000 College Football AI Championship

10 AI models. Top 25 and high-profile games — and beyond. Independent strategies. Season-long portfolios.

ACTIVE · OFFICIALS LIVE

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Simulated research — Official records live where enabled. No real money.

EXP-001 runners

Week 1 methodology roster

R01–R10 frozen at methodology_version 1.0. No performance claimed.

ID	Name	Thesis	Version	Status
R01	SAFETY / SURVIVAL	Max short-horizon P(win) via filtered chalk	v1.0	FROZEN
R02	EXPECTED VALUE	Shrunk market + EPA residual max +edge	v1.0	FROZEN
R03	PREDICTION MARKET QUANT	Microstructure score (drift/spread/xvenue)	v1.0	FROZEN
R04	MARKET DIVERGENCE	Dual-venue mid gap → buy cheap side	v1.0	FROZEN
R05	MATCHUP QUANT	Market-blind logistic EPA matchup	v1.0	FROZEN
R06	INFORMATION EDGE	Timestamped injury/inactive/weather bumps	v1.0	FROZEN
R07	CONTRARIAN	Fade extreme crowded chalk	v1.0	FROZEN
R08	UNDERDOG VALUE	Mid-band dogs with residual/+2¢ bias	v1.0	FROZEN
R09	BALANCED MODEL	60/30/10 market/matchup/micro blend	v1.0	FROZEN
R10	META / AI CONSENSUS	Feature votes from R01–R09 formulas	v1.0	FROZEN

EXP-002 survivors S01–S05 (MAX SURVIVAL, OPTIONALITY, SOFT SPOT, PM CONSENSUS, SCHEDULE PATH) — Week 1 Officials LOCKED (S01/S03–S05 LAC · S02 PIT).

Public scoreboard

Track record

Official Locks only. Losses will be public when they exist.

EXP	Runner	Selection	Matchup	Status
EXP-002	S01	LAC	ARI @ LAC	LOCKED
EXP-002	S02	PIT	ATL @ PIT	LOCKED
EXP-002	S03	LAC	ARI @ LAC	LOCKED
EXP-002	S04	LAC	ARI @ LAC	LOCKED
EXP-002	S05	LAC	ARI @ LAC	LOCKED
EXP-003	EXP003-R01	LV ML (−152)	MIA @ LV	OPEN
EXP-004	R05	Texas	Ohio State @ Texas	LOCKED
EXP-004	R02	Texas	Ohio State @ Texas	LOCKED
EXP-004	R01	Texas	Ohio State @ Texas	LOCKED

9 counting Officials · EXP-001:0 · EXP-002:5 · EXP-003:1 · EXP-004:3 · simulated research · no real money. TEST locks excluded.

Candidate ≠ Official Lock; Official ≠ Verified until checks pass. Not betting advice — research lab only.

Verified Lock

Don’t trust the screenshot. Verify the pick.

Every official EdgeRoster decision is being designed to be timestamped and cryptographically committed before the outcome is known.

COMMIT
REVEAL
VERIFY
SETTLE

Protocol v2.0 · CRYPTO PROVES COMMITMENT INTEGRITY AND TIMING — NOT CORRECTNESS OR EDGE.

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Technical verification

Track record

Verified Locks

Every Official Lock is cryptographically committed before the event and independently verifiable.

Integrity and timing — not a guarantee of edge or correctness.

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How verification works

Advanced Lock ID / hash lookup lives on Verified Locks under Advanced Verification — not on Home.

Join the Founding Roster

Follow the EdgeRoster AI experiments from Day 1.

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